Josh Allen bounced a would-be touchdown pass to Isaiah McKenzie. In addition to the Bills being extremely short-handed, they simply didn’t capitalize on opportunities.
Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins can’t really be blamed on coaching. So if the Bills are about three wins worse than they should be in one-score games, are they dropping the ball because of coaching or bad luck? Is Poor Coaching Costing the Bills or is it Bad Luck? However, as we mentioned above, roughly three of those close games should have been wins by the law of averages, so while we shouldn’t care that the Bills are only losing close games, we should maybe care that they are losing slightly more of them than you’d like to see. This should tell us is that it’s fairly normal for the majority of the Bills’ losses to be close games. That tracks pretty well with the 2021 Cowboys and 2020 Packers. The Bills lost six games in 2021 and five of them were in one-score games. The Packers were also 13-3 that season so all of their losses were close games. The Packers led the NFL in scoring margin and went 4-3 in one-score games. In 2020, the Bills were 5th in the NFL with a +6.8 scoring margin. They also only lost five games on the season so every Dallas loss but one was a one-score game. Dallas was 4-4 in one-score games in 2021, which is pretty much exactly what should be expected. In 2021, the Bills led the NFL with a +11.5 scoring margin. They beat the Colts by 24 and the Chargers by 18. The Jaguars’ only loss this year is in a one-score game. Jacksonville is, surprisingly, next with a +15.3 margin. In 2022, the Bills lead the NFL with a +17.7 scoring margin. If the Bills are competitive in every single game, then it tracks that the only games they lose will be close. Since teams are highly unlikely to go undefeated, each team will lose a few games a year. If the Bills are either blowing teams out or playing close games, then it would make sense if they are losing more close games than the average. The difference here would be simple but important.
The next question becomes are they losing lots of close games because they’re bad in close games or are they losing lots of close games because those are the only ones they actually lose? We’ve covered that the Bills lose slightly more close games than they should and are struggling in close games in recent years. 500, you’re really talking about the Bills being two or three games below where they should be.
Certainly not a record to be proud of but considering the average winning percentage in one-score games is around. That means that, all told, in the last three seasons, the Bills are 9-14 in one-score games. For our purposes, I’ll still say they went 4-6. In 2019, they went 4-6 in one-score games although, one of those games was a Week 17 loss to the Jets, 13-6, in which the Bills sat pretty much all of their starters, so you can count it as 4-5 if you’d like. In 2020, the Bills went 5-1 in one-score games, and their only loss came on the now infamous Kyler Murray hail mary to DeAndre Hopkins. Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins then means that they’ve lost even straight one-score games. If that trend turns back toward more experienced coaches getting top jobs, Frazier should certainly be at the top of many lists across the league.In 2021, the Bills went 0-6 in one-score games, including the playoff loss to the Chiefs. That doesn’t help the 63-year-old’s case. The league has consistently opted for young coaches in recent years. While more than qualified, Frazier has gotten interviewed throughout the past few offseasons and no one has offered him a job. Those namely being cornerback Tre’Davious White and pass rusher Von Miller.īut Frazier will have to wait and see if he gets a shot at another head coaching gig. At some point, Frazier is going to get another look as a head coach.įrazier did do a great job guiding the Bills defense without some top players they’re poised to have coming into the fold in 2022. That said, they allowed an average of 4.6 yards per play, and did so for a large part of the season without their best cornerback or without a highly paid player along their front four. I tweeted about the advantages the Buffalo Bills’ defense has over some other units- namely their schedule last year and the fact that their games are played with the highest wind speeds in football. In the breakdown on Frazier, PFF makes a big prediction: The Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator was called the NFL’s best play caller by the football analytics outlet.
BUFFALO BILLS PLAY BY PLAY PRO
Pro Football Focus put a pretty big feather in the cap of Leslie Frazier.
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